How Garmin’s holiday lineup is reversing its $14 billion stock crash
Garmin stock has posted a modest recovery after a sharp five-week drop that wiped out nearly $14 billion in market value. From a high of $259.77 on October 8, the price tumbled to $187 by November 20. Since then, it has climbed back to $210.79, regaining some ground as Garmin’s holiday lineup picks up steam.
The sharp downward correction in October and November came despite record Q3 revenue and a raised full-year earnings forecast. Markets instead zeroed in on weak growth guidance for the company’s outdoor segment, which includes the flagship Fenix range. That was enough to trigger one of the steepest declines in the company’s recent history, despite healthy fundamentals across the board.
Holiday discounts are driving attention across the lineup
Garmin has responded to the post-earnings slump with aggressive holiday promotions across nearly its entire lineup. For the first time, discounts were offered on 2025 models, including the Forerunner 570 and Forerunner 970. Even the Fenix 8 Pro, which only launched a few months ago, was slightly discounted. That is an unusual move so early in a product cycle.
The company also reduced prices on the Bounce 2 for kids, the lifestyle-focused Venu 4, and its latest Edge cycling computers. While Garmin has not released any updated sales figures since the Q3 report, the scale and timing of these promotions suggest a clear push to boost holiday momentum and draw more users into the ecosystem.
Fenix timing remains the central issue
At the heart of the earlier selloff was Garmin’s admission that the Fenix 8 Pro landed too late in Q3 to support outdoor revenue. That segment declined 5% year-on-year, and full-year growth guidance was cut to just 3%. The Fenix 8 Pro itself includes upgrades like microLED display, cellular and satellite support, and live tracking, but missed the critical window for Q3 volume.
Despite the bounce from the November low, shares remain well below the late October peak. The stock has recovered about $4.6 billion in value, but the market still expects the Fenix line to deliver during the final weeks of the year.
If you had bought Garmin stock at the start of 2025, you’d be looking at a modest gain right now. Despite some big swings, the current price is just above the $204.55 opening level on January 1. But if you’d invested a year earlier, you’d have nearly doubled your money by now. Hindsight always makes the timing look easy.
Market tailwinds and holiday bets
Broader equity markets are still holding near all-time highs, with the Dow Jones recently setting a new record. That supportive backdrop has likely helped Garmin’s stock stabilize. But the recovery is fragile. Much of the valuation still hinges on high-end wearables gaining traction before year-end.
Garmin says channel inventory is lean and well positioned going into Q4. If the Fenix 8 Pro and other devices pick up momentum during the final stretch of holiday sales, the rebound could continue. But with so much weight placed on flagship watch cycles, any shortfall could drag shares back down just as quickly.
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