Garmin vs Strava race predictions put to the test
Garmin and Strava both try to tell you how fast you’ll run, but they go about it very differently. Strava is more accurate on average, though usually on the conservative side, while Garmin’s predictions are more balanced but often less reliable.
The accuracy gap is measurable
Race predictions are those finish time estimates your watch or app throws at you for distances like 5K, 10K or a marathon. They’re based on your recent runs, heart rate, pace and sometimes fitness level. The goal is to tell you what kind of time you could realistically hit right now, based on your current form. It’s not about your all-time best, just where you stand today. Some people use them for motivation, others just like seeing the numbers shift as training picks up.
So is Strava or Garmin more accurate?
If you want a quick answer, Strava wins on accuracy. The average absolute error across predictions is 4.4 percent compared to 5.3 percent for Garmin. That might not sound like much, but for a 50-minute 10K it adds up to over a minute difference. The typical (median) error tells the same story, with Strava again edging ahead.
But there’s nuance here. Strava is consistently off in the same direction. Its predicted times are almost always too slow. Around three-quarters of runners beat their Strava estimates. That bias might not be a mistake. It could be designed to feel good. Better to surprise yourself with a faster finish than fall short of an over-ambitious number.
Garmin takes a different route. Its predictions are more balanced. Runners overshoot and undershoot Garmin’s times in equal measure. That sounds fair, but it also means when Garmin gets it wrong, it sometimes gets it badly wrong. The spread of errors is wider.
When predictions feel real
These figures come from GetFast.ai and it is put together from crowdsources race predictions. Their analysis also looked at how often each platform gets close to the actual result. When you look at races where predictions were under 5 percent off, Strava again pulls ahead. Its curve climbs faster, meaning more people had tight predictions. Garmin lags, with fewer runners falling into that sweet spot.
Consistency also matters. Strava’s standard deviation of error was 4.7 percent, compared to Garmin’s 6.8 percent. That means Strava users could expect less variation from race to race. The trade-off is that most of them were under-predicted.
In head-to-head comparisons where both platforms gave predictions, Strava was more conservative about 72 percent of the time. Garmin’s more aggressive outlook might appeal to runners who like a stretch goal. But if you’re the type who prefers a safety margin, Strava’s caution might suit you better.
Prediction psychology in play
There’s a subtle psychology behind these results. Strava’s pattern suggests a product team aware of user experience. Beating your predicted time feels good and reinforces confidence in the app. Garmin’s middle-ground strategy may feel more accurate in principle, but big misses can be jarring.
Still, these are broad trends. Your own results might differ based on training consistency, device use, and data syncing habits. And while this comparison didn’t include other platforms like Coros or Polar, there’s scope for that in future updates.
The report was put together by GetFast.ai and relies on user-contributed race results. The above figures were calculated from close to 200 user race predictions. They’re encouraging more people to submit their own data, which could lead to deeper analysis across race types and distances.
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